Viewing archive of Friday, 28 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at 27/2325Z, likely associated with activity from near the southwest limb. Region 319 (N12W18) has stabilized following a period of rapid growth in the previous 24 hours. Despite its moderate size, this region maintains a fairly simple magnetic configuration and has been stable. Region 321 (N04E21) exhibited slight decay and was relatively quiet this period. New Region 326 (S12E74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Regions 319 and 321 have good potential for C-class flares and a small chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. The most active conditions early in the period were due to a waning high speed coronal hole stream. A weak transient passed the ACE spacecraft between 28/1400 - 1500Z. Predominantly southward Bz in the IMF resulted in active levels late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes are possible through day one and again on day three as another weak coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 147
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  150/155/150
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  012/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%30%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%40%
Minor storm25%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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