Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318 (S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes. The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to - 6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 093
  Predicted    24 Mar-26 Mar  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  011/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  020/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm 15%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm 20%25%30%
Major-severe storm 05%10%20%

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