Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W80) produced an M1/1f flare at 1131 UTC. The group also produced a C9/Sf at 0231 UTC. The region appears to be in a slow decay phase as it crosses the west limb. New Region 317 (N04E03) emerged on the disk today as a small bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next 24 hours due to possible additional flare activity from Region 314. Conditions should decline to low levels for the second and third day as Region 314 will be behind west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with a minor storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200 UTC. An increase in solar wind speed was observed at about 0420 UTC and may be an indication of the passage of the flank of the CME that was associated with the X1 flare observed at 18/1200 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current activity persists. A gradual decline to unsettled levels is expected for the seconds and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M 40%20%05%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 097
  Predicted    21 Mar-23 Mar  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  020/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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