Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 314 (S16W52) produced
an X1/1B flare at 18/1208 UTC. The flare was associated with type
II/IV radio sweeps, a 1400 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, and an
apparent CME observed by the NASA SOHO spacecraft. This region also
produced several other smaller flares over the past 24 hours. New
Region 316 (S12E66) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Flare activity is expected to continue in Region
314, including the chance of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels as the
coronal hole induced disturbance continued. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 48
hours. The CME associated with the 18 March X1/1B flare may
influence activity levels on 20 March.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 118 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 019/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 020/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 020/025-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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