Viewing archive of Monday, 17 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 314 (S16W39) produced
an X1/1b flare at 17/1905 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 520
sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz. This region also produced several
C-class events over the past 24 hours. Sunspots continued to grow
and the delta configuration in the trailer spots had intensified
since yesterday. Other disk regions were relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is likely in Region 314, including the
possibility of another major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind
speeds remained above 600 km/s and Bz fluctuated between +/- 10 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next 24 hours with the
possibility of minor storm periods. Activity levels are expected to
abate by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 125 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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