Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 314 (S14W26) remained
the most active area by producing a number of small C-class x-ray
flares. Growth of the region continued but at a reduced rate and a
delta configuration formed in the trailer spots. Region 306 (N08W45)
decayed slightly and was relatively stable with regard to flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected in Region 314. A chance of
a small M-class flare in 314 also exists.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The influence of a coronal
hole high-speed stream continues with solar wind speeds remaining
above 600 km/s and Bz values fluctuating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active under the influence of the coronal
hole stream for the next day or so. CME effects are possible on the
second day of the forecast due to a DSF observed on 14 March.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 129 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 017/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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