Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event was a B9.2 X-ray enhancement at 14/1825 UTC. The most likely source of this enhancement was a disappearing solar filament that lifted off near S25W55. The western most 30 degrees of the large filament lifted off at 14/1730 UTC and was associated with a CME, as seen in LASCO imagery. There is not enough data at the time of this report to determine if the CME will be geo-effective. Two other DSFs occurred during the past twenty-four hours. A 10 degree filament lifted off near S16W27 at 13/2030 UTC and a 13 degree filament lifted off near N40E45 at 13/2200 UTC. The 13 degree DSF was associated with a CME off the northeast limb but does not appear to be Earth directed. New Region 314 (S14E00) rapidly appeared on the visible disk and grew to 80 millionths. Magnetic complexity of Region 314 also rapidly increased to a beta-gamma configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 306 (N07W19) and 314 have C-class potential and a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the period solar wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s marking the onset of the expected high speed stream. Fluctuations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field to -8 nT resulted in isolated active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected to continue through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 139
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  015/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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