Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 311 (S12W08) produced a C1.3/Sf flare at 13/0213 UTC with multiple eruptive centers. Region 311 has grown slightly over the past twenty-four hours, most notable was an increase in plage area with numerous patches forming east of the main spots. New Region 313 (N32E00), exhibited numerous plage fluctuations. The largest and most complex spot group on the disk was Region 306 (N07W05). This region has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 306 and 311 have the potential for C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Two separate periods of isolated active conditions were observed due to Bz fluctuations near -10 nT. Solar wind velocity remained relatively steady between 450 - 500 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active conditions. High speed stream effects are expected early in the period as an equatorial coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 134
  Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  017/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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