Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B8.4 flare at 12/1652 UTC from Region 306 (N05E08) as
seen in NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 306 has exhibited growth in area
coverage over the past twenty-four hours and maintains its beta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 296 (12W85), 306, and 311 (S12E05) have C-class
potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High speed stream
effects are expected on day one and day two as a recurring coronal
hole rotates into a geo-effective position. A chance of isolated
active conditions are also possible on day one and day two due to
the expected high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 138 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 007/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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