Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event was a B8.4 flare at 12/1652 UTC from Region 306 (N05E08) as seen in NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 306 has exhibited growth in area coverage over the past twenty-four hours and maintains its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 296 (12W85), 306, and 311 (S12E05) have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High speed stream effects are expected on day one and day two as a recurring coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective position. A chance of isolated active conditions are also possible on day one and day two due to the expected high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 138
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  007/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  015/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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