Viewing archive of Monday, 10 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C2.0/Sf event that occurred at 10/1754Z from Region 310 (S16W62). This region has been in decay throughout the period. Region 306 (N05E34) was responsible for lesser B-class flares and has also shown some decay. Most of the spotted regions were quiescent during the period. New Region 312 (N09W25) was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated active period occurred at mid and high latitudes between 10/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the first 48 hours of the period. Day three should experience active conditions due to a co-rotating interactive region that has preceded a recurrent coronal hole over the past several rotations.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 144
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  006/010-006/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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