Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. The largest flare during the period was a C2.6/Sf event that occurred in Region 206 (N05E63) at 08/0957Z. White light currently shows this group to consist of a single large penumbral spot which may share both polarities. Will be able to better analyze once region rotates further onto disk. A C1.0 flare was observed from Region 301 (N22W18) at 08/0116Z. There was little in the way of magnetic structure changes seen in this region during the period. Region 297 (S14W25) produced a couple low level B-class flares today. Regions 307 (S26W02) and 308 (n08E75) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 296 (N13W31).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. There was an isolated active period at mid latitudes in response to a southward oscillation in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field between 08/1500 and 1800Z. The coronal hole high speed stream that has been geoeffective for the past several days appears to have rotated out of its favorable position early in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 148
  Predicted    09 Mar-11 Mar  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  008/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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