Viewing archive of Friday, 7 March 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296 (N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306 (N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and 305 (S22E27).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and 306.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M15%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 150
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  015/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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