Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. There were several C-class flares today: a C3.4 at 2344 UTC from an unnumbered region on the West limb at N11, a C1.5 at 0033 UTC, a C1.7 at 0620 UTC, and a C1.0 at 1250 UTC from Region 293 (S19E21). Region 296 (N12E76) was newly assigned today. SXI images from GOES-12 show two new regions behind the East limb at approximately N11 and S16.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The co-rotating interaction region from yesterday was followed quickly by a high speed coronal hole stream. At geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV Electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels as the high speed coronal hole stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M10%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 125
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  130/135/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  017/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  015/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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