Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
flare today: a C1 at 0158 UTC that was from Region 288 on the west
limb at N14. Three new regions were assigned today: Region 293
(S21E26), Region 294 (S07E42), and Region 295 (S19E65). All are
simple, small sunspot groups. SXI images from GOES-12 show another
active region behind east limb at about N14.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The solar sector boundary that began late
yesterday was followed by a co-rotating interaction region and a
high speed coronal hole stream. The CIR portion of the solar wind
flow included some intervals of moderate to strong negative
z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (-10 to -15 nT) and
was associated with about 9 hours of active to minor storm levels.
Conditions declined to unsettled to active during the last 12 hours
of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours as the
current high speed coronal hole stream continues. Conditions should
decline to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 118 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 123/125/128 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 020/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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