Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's largest event was
a B8 at 0401 UTC from Region 288 (N16W66). This region showed
additional brightenings during the day. Region 290 (N18W47)
continues to be the largest group on the disk but is decaying. New
Region 292 (S08W14) emerged on the disk as a simple beta type. Solar
X-ray images from GOES-12 show a new active region just behind the
east limb at about S19.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 102 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 007/012-007/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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