Viewing archive of Monday, 24 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event occurred: a C1/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 290 (N18W33). This region continues to be the largest of the two sunspot regions currently on the solar disk. Region 290 (N18W33) became somewhat more active during the last few hours of the period with some impulsive B-flares and some associated activity in a nearby filament.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds showed a declining trend throughout the day. Electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 102
  Predicted    25 Feb-27 Feb  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  010/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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