Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N18W06) was the
main flare producer, generating occasional subflares. The C5/Sf at
0929 UTC from Region 290 was the most energetic event of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Remnants of the high-speed
stream persist, generating short-lived episodes of active
conditions. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 107 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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