Viewing archive of Friday, 21 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 290 (N17E05) continues
in a slow growth phase and produced several minor C-class events,
the largest being an impulsive C4 flare at 21/1950Z. This moderately
complex region may have a weak delta configuration in the leader
spots. Region 289 (N09W90) remains quite active as it rotates
around the west limb. This region has also been in a slow growth
phase since its development on the visible disk on 18 Feb. New
Region 291 was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, though there is a small chance for an M-class flare
from Region 290.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The disturbed periods are
due to a declining high speed solar wind stream. This high speed
stream began the period near 700 km/s, but declined slowly
throughout the day to 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 120 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/012-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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