Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 290 (N18E30)
produced a C1.8/Sf at 19/1437 UTC. This region has shown growth in
area coverage, and has formed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in
the leader spots. Region 289 (N09W66) has shown rapid growth in the
last 24 hours, but has maintained a beta magnetic configuration.
Activity from Region 289 consisted of bright surging along the
southwest portion of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance of isolated M-class activity from
Regions 289 and 290.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
transient effects that began yesterday, and produced a structured
solar wind, appear to be ending. At 19/1400 UTC, the steady decline
in solar wind velocity reached a minimum near 500 km/s. Solar wind
velocity has since increased to 560 km/s. Bz show signs of
returning to the fluctuating signature of a high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. An
equatorial coronal hole has entered a geo-effective position, and is
expected to produce high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 116 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 017/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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