Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C1.1 flare on the west limb at 16/0325 UTC. The most likely
source of this flare was Region 276 (S14, L=160) as determined by
NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 288 (N11E59) has rotated further onto the
visible disk revealing a DSO spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration. The plage of Region 288 exhibited nearly constant
surging. Region 282 (N11E82) produced plage fluctuations and has
shown some decrease in area coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 282 and 288 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole
effects continue with solar wind gradually increasing to near 650
km/s and Bz continuing to be, on average, slightly southward. Major
storming conditions were observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Peak activity is expected
on day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 119 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 015/020-018/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
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