Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C1.1 flare on the west limb at 16/0325 UTC. The most likely source of this flare was Region 276 (S14, L=160) as determined by NOAA/SXI imagery. Region 288 (N11E59) has rotated further onto the visible disk revealing a DSO spot group with a beta magnetic configuration. The plage of Region 288 exhibited nearly constant surging. Region 282 (N11E82) produced plage fluctuations and has shown some decrease in area coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 282 and 288 have the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole effects continue with solar wind gradually increasing to near 650 km/s and Bz continuing to be, on average, slightly southward. Major storming conditions were observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Peak activity is expected on day two of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 119
  Predicted    17 Feb-19 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  013/014
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  015/020-018/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 30%35%30%
Major-severe storm 15%20%15%

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