Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration C1 flare and
CME occurred at 10/2124Z. SXI imagery confirmed that the likely
source of this activity was just behind the west limb, probably old
Region 274 (S05, L=225). Region 280 (S06W42) produced a C2 flare at
11/1743Z. No other significant activity or changes were observed in
the remaining small and magnetically simple regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period at higher latitudes between 11/0000 - 0300Z. Solar
wind conditions, slightly elevated in recent days, have declined to
normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 135 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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