Viewing archive of Monday, 10 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 277 (S19W07) produced the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 10/0230Z. No significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining active regions. Several small, mostly dormant spot groups with simple magnetic configurations populate the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Very isolated low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active periods at all latitudes between 10/0300 - 0900Z. A slightly elevated solar wind velocity and southward turning in the interplanetary magnetic field account for the most disturbed periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 136
  Predicted    11 Feb-13 Feb  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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