Viewing archive of Monday, 10 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 277 (S19W07) produced
the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 10/0230Z. No
significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining
active regions. Several small, mostly dormant spot groups with
simple magnetic configurations populate the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Very isolated low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active
periods at all latitudes between 10/0300 - 0900Z. A slightly
elevated solar wind velocity and southward turning in the
interplanetary magnetic field account for the most disturbed
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods possible during local nighttime hours.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 136 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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