Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity dropped to very low levels this period. Minor B-class subflares from Regions 276 (S12W26) and 280 (S07W13) were the only notable activity observed. No significant changes were observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 286 (S11W17) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Solar wind conditions were at near nominal levels, but periods of weak southward IMF Bz yielded the occasional active periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit remain considerably enhanced, reaching high levels again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods likely.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 141
  Predicted    10 Feb-12 Feb  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/012-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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