Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity dropped to very low levels this period.
Minor B-class subflares from Regions 276 (S12W26) and 280 (S07W13)
were the only notable activity observed. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 286 (S11W17)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods. Solar wind conditions were at near nominal levels,
but periods of weak southward IMF Bz yielded the occasional active
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit remain considerably enhanced, reaching high levels again this
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods likely.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 141 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/012-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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