Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare from newly numbered Region 285 (S10E75) was the highlight of the period. Just a single sunspot visible so far in this new region, but limb proximity is hindering a thorough analysis. Regions 274 (S05W76), 276 (S13W14,) and 278 (N18E26), the largest regions on the visible disk, exhibited occasional plage fluctuations, but all are in a decay phase with relatively simple magnetic configurations. New Region 284 (N12W14) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Several regions on the visible disk have potential to produce an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 08/1200 - 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 139
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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