Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The only significant
activity was a C1.0 long-duration event from Region 274 (S06W63) at
07/1628 UTC. Regions 276 (S13E00) and 278 (N18E40) acquired a gamma
magnetic structure during the period. Region 277 continues to be
active. Regions 282 (N12E35) and 283 (N01E52) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced an isolated active period from 07/1200
to 07/1500 UTC. Solar wind observation continued to show a high
speed stream associated with a subsiding coronal hole. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to subside to and remain at mostly quiet with isolated
periods of unsettled levels due to the departure of the coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 157 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 008/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 006/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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