Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. An M1.2
at 06/0349 UTC from Region 278 (N18E64) was the only M-class
activity. There were several C-class flares, with a maximum of C3.4
at 06/0214 UTC from Region 277 (S17E55). Regions 276 (S15E22), 277, and
278 continue to show activity. Regions 280 (S08E29) and 281
(S14E73) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with isolated M-class flare activity from Regions 276,
277, and 278 possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
observation shows a continued high speed stream associated with a
coronal hole. The greater than 2MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have been at mostly high levels for the last 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
For the forecast period, the
geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled
with isolated periods of active levels due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 150 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/010-005/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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