Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 February 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. All of today's flare activity was dominated by new Region 276 (S14E76), which produced an M1 at 0905 UTC, a C9/Sf at 1954 UTC, as well as numerous additional C-class subflares. Observations of the group so far indicate a relatively small (190 millionths) D-type sunspot group. An erupting prominence was observed at 31/2200 UTC on the Northwest limb and was associated with a type II sweep (shock velocity 500 km/s) and a CME seen by LASCO. The remainder of the regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 276 is expected to be the main driver of activity, and has a fair chance for producing an additional M-class event over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions prevailed for most of the day, but an increase to unsettled to active began at 1500 UTC. A marked increase in solar wind velocity and total magnetic field strength was observed beginning at 1300 UTC, but a predominantly positive value for Bz suppressed activity until 1900 UTC, when Bz turned weakly southwards. The interpretation of the enhanced solar wind flow is not obvious, but seems most consistent with the passage of transient flow due to the halo CME that occurred on 30 January. The great than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours with a chance for some isolated minor storm periods. Conditions should subside to unsettled to active by day two, and return to mostly unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Feb 126
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  025/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm40%30%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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