Viewing archive of Monday, 27 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No significant events occurred in the past 24 hours. One new active region, 273 (N06W18), was born on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds dropped to more normal levels near 450 km/s. Energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit attained high values during the interval.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 121
  Predicted    28 Jan-30 Jan  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  010/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  010/010-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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