Viewing archive of Monday, 27 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant events
occurred in the past 24 hours. One new active region, 273 (N06W18),
was born on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds
dropped to more normal levels near 450 km/s. Energetic electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit attained high values during the
interval.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 121 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 010/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 010/010-010/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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