Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 January 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 268 (N14W29) produced a C4/Sf flare at 25/1855 UTC. Associated with this event was a tenflare and discrete radio bursts. The leading and trailing umbra in Region 268 have separated and no longer share a common penumbra, simplifying the magnetic configuration to a beta class. Region 266 (S21W10) has increased in extent to 16 degrees making it a Fai spot group. Magnetically, this region has been relatively stable and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 266 and 268 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storm levels were reached due to an elevated solar wind speed near 800 km/s combined with a seven hour period of negative Bz. Solar wind speed was in gradual decay at the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active conditions are possible on day one of the period due to a weak shock from the M2.5 event on 23 January and the M1.9 event on 24 January. Day two and day three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 129
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  028/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  020/025-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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