Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest
event was an M2.5/1n flare at 23/1243 UTC from Region 266 (S22E13).
Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep measuring 578
km/s. A second M-class flare, an M1.0, from Region 266 occurred at
23/0448 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (476 km/s). In
the last 24 hours, Region 266 has shown increased growth and
complexity in the leader spots. The spot group is now 140
millionths in size with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
263 (S11W68) has also exhibited growth in area coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 263, 266 and 267 have the potential
to produce and isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The onset
of coronal hole effects resulted in minor storm conditions early in
the period. NASA/ACE instruments indicate an increase in solar wind
speed with peak values near 700 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was slightly southward early in the
period but has since been, on average, neutral. 2 MeV electron flux
at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Continued high
speed stream effects have the potential for isolated minor storming
on day one of the forecast period. Day two and day three are
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 136 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 020/020-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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