Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 260
produced an M1.2/1f flare at 22/0444 UTC. This region has seen
steady decay in magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage during
the period. Region 269 (S09E63) has been quiescent today and
appears to be a simple magnetic beta group. Region 267 (S20E51) has
shown slow but steady growth since rotating onto disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 267 and 269 have a slight chance of producing
low level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A recurrent
coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective on day one of the
forecast period. Days two and three should experience similar
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 130 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 009/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 020/020-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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