Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Newly assigned Region 269 (S09E76) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1.9 x-ray event with associated loops occurred at 21/1526 UTC (no optical flare reported due to source center being just beyond the east limb). Based on NASA/LASCO imagery, this event produced a CME and it is doubtful that it will become geoeffective. Unable to determine how mature this region is at the time of this writing due to it's proximity to the east limb. Region 260 (N14W00) produced several C-class events throughout the interval and became slightly more magnetically complex during the past 24 hours. A C8.1 flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) occurred at 21/0228 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 700 km/sec. A C4.1/Sf event occurred at 21/0557 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep (shock velocity estimated at 700 km/sec) and a Tenflare. A 36 degree disappearing solar filament was observed at the beginning of the period that produced a CME which does not appear to be earth-directed. Region 268 (N12E23) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance of further M-class flare activity from region 269 pending further analysis as it rotates onto the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A lingering southern coronal hole extension high speed stream is believed to be responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels for day one of the forecast period. By day two a transequatorial recurrent high speed stream coronal hole should become geoeffective producing active to minor storm conditions with isolated major storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 134
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  135/140/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  010/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

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