Viewing archive of Monday, 20 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 260 (N14E13) produced the largest flare during the interval, a C4.3/Sf event occurring at 20/0710 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in magnetic complexity and spot coverage since yesterday. Region 259 (N10W15) has shown decay in the intermediate spot cluster and remains simply structured. The solar disk was mostly quiescent throughout the period. Regions 264 (S20W02, 265 (N04E31), 266 (S23E56), and 267 (S20E77) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a brief period of minor storm conditions (between 20/0000 to 0300 UTC) at high latitudes. Coronal hole high speed stream effects from a southern polar extension are believed to be responsible for the elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active conditions for day one of the period as the favorably positioned coronal hole wanes. Day two should see a return to predominantly unsettled conditions. By day three a transequatorial recurrent coronal hole should become geoeffective producing active to minor storm levels at both middle and high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 138
  Predicted    21 Jan-23 Jan  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  010/010-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%40%
Minor storm 05%05%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%45%
Minor storm 10%10%30%
Major-severe storm 01%05%15%

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