Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity during the interval was limited to low level B-class events. Although there are a number of spotted regions on the solar disk they were quiescent and magnetically remain simply structured. Regions 261 (N26W47), 262 (S05W45), and 263 (S13W11) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions commenced with an increase in the solar wind speed to approximately 600 km/sec, believed to be associated with coronal hole effects from the southern polar extension whose leading edge is at about W53.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through day one of the forecast period. The geoeffective coronal hole effects should subside by day two returning the field to predominantly unsettled conditions thereafter.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 130
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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