Viewing archive of Friday, 17 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A small, four degree filament near S03W04 disappeared sometime between 16/2338 UTC and 17/1452 UTC. Region 259 (N09E26) showed moderate growth but could only muster a B-class subflare. The remainder of the solar disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Real-time solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about 1200 UTC on 17 January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 142
  Predicted    18 Jan-20 Jan  135/135/125
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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