Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 242 has now rotated around the west limb near S07, but continues to be quite active. It was the likely source of several small C-class flares and was responsible for today's largest event, a C6 flare at 14/0636Z. The largest region on the disk is Region 255 (S13W12). This region's close proximity to Region 251 (S14W05) adds complexity, but activity this period was limited to occasional fluctuations in the plage field. A large prominence eruption off the SE limb was observed to begin at around 14/1700Z. New Regions 258 (N07E56) and 259 (N13E72) were numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a thorough analysis, but limb activity was considerable over the past few days in the vicinity of these newly numbered regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a slight chance for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at higher latitudes. A period (04-12Z) of mostly southward orientation in the IMF was responsible for the more disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 164
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

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