Viewing archive of Monday, 13 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity continued at low levels. A C4/Sf flare and associated CME was observed near the SW limb at 13/1615Z. The flare began in Region 242 (S07W87) with sympathetic flaring observed soon after in Region 244 (S22W84). Region 242 is also the confirmed source of yesterday's C6 event at 12/1425Z. A prominence erupted off the east limb near N14 at around 1400Z. No significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 257 (N16E23) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 172
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  004/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  005/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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