Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C6 X-ray flare at 12/1425Z was the most energetic event of the day. Region 242 (S07W75) was the most active region on the disk, producing frequent plage fluctuations and occasional low C-class flares as it approaches the west limb. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 244 (S22W71) and 247 (S16W07). It became more evident this period that Region 251 (S14E24) contained two distinct bipoles; consequently, this region was separated with new Region number 255 (S13E13) assigned to the large westernmost spot. It also became clear that the trailing spots in Region 254 (S16E44) make up a distinct bipole and were numbered as Region 256 (S17E55).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a small chance for an isolated M-class flare, primarily from Region 242.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 173
  Predicted    13 Jan-15 Jan  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  005/008-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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