Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 January 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 242 (S07W61) produced several low C-class flares this period. Some new development was noted in this moderately complex region. More spots have rotated into view near newly numbered Region 254 (S16E62). Limb proximity hinders a more thorough analysis, but there may be two groups there. Small subfaint flares and minor C-class activity was also noted in Regions 244 (S22W56), 247 (S17E07), and 251 (S14E32).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate models. Regions 242, 247, 251, and 254 all have potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak high speed coronal hole stream produced unsettled conditions early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 189
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  190/195/190
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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