Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Only C-class events were
observed through the period. Region 242 (S08W48) has shown a
decrease in area and sunspots but retains its beta gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 247 (S15E20) has maintained its area and spot
count and the magnetic configuration of the region became a beta
gamma configuration. Region 251 (S13E44) has an area of 340
millionths of white light with 12 spots and a beta configuration.
Two new regions were numbered today as Region 253 (N11W36) and 254
(S15E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from Region 242,
247, and 251.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 185 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 002/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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