Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 251 (S13E58)
produced an M1/1n event at 09/0537 UTC. Region 242 (S08W34) and 251
both continue to retain their beta gamma magnetic configuration.
Another region of interest is Region 247 (S17E34) which has shown
significant growth in area and spot count. It is currently at 340
millionths of white light coverage with 36 spots. A new region was
numbered today as Region 252 (S04E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 242, 247, and 251 are all capable of producing
an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on 10 January as a result of coronal hole activity.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 183 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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