Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class subflares were observed. New Region 240 (S06E20) emerged on the disk today as a small D-type sunspot region. All three spotted regions on the disk are simple and less than 100 millionths in area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next three days, with a slight chance for some isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 115
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  007/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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