Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 28/2314Z and was likely associated with the eruption of segments of a filament near N15E40. A faint CME was observed following the filament disappearance. The remaining segments of this horseshoe shaped filament continue to be quite active. The large filament near N25W25 is also quite active. The handful of regions on the sun are small with simple magnetic structure. New region 239 (S10E37) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. The best chance for a C-class flare is from Region 234 (N18E05).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated - near 550 km/s, due to a high speed coronal hole stream. The high speed stream is declining as the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through the next three days. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 115
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/010-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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