Viewing archive of Monday, 23 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C3 flare from Region 226 (S28W78) at 23/0719 UTC. Region 226 continues its gradual decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 224 (S15W68) has shown rapid growth in the last 24 hours with increasing penumbral coverage to 470 millionths. This region has also developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 229 (N22W51) has decreased in magnetic complexity to a simple beta configuration. New Region 233 (N11E42) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 224, 226, and 230 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Sustained southward Bz and a six-hour period of elevated solar wind velocity (peak velocity 600 km/s) resulted in active conditions at mid-latitudes and minor storm conditions on the planetary index.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active conditions. A weak CME shock is possible on day one of the period due to the M1 event that occurred on 21 December. Days two and three of the forecast period are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M50%40%30%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 159
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  015/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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