Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
223 (N25W58) produced an M1.1/2f flare at 22/0230 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
833 km/sec and a Tenflare. There was some growth in areal spot
coverage during the period while this region continues to exhibit a
simple magnetic structure. Regions 226 (S28E67) and 229 (N19W42)
have been in steady decay throughout the period. Region 226
continues to depict a magnetic delta structure in the main cluster
of intermediate spots. Region 230 (S08W07) underwent little change
today. The later three regions mentioned were quiescent during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period at middle and high latitudes between 22/1800
and 2100 UTC. The NASA/ACE instrument detected a weak shock passage
at approximately 22/1300 UTC. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly north since
transient onset. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
the forecast period. Due to a slightly elevated solar wind speed
there may be isolated active periods observed mostly at high
latitudes into day one of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 172 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/015-006/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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