Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 226 (S28W15) produced two M-class flares today. The largest was an M2.4/1n flare that occurred at 18/0642 UTC, a slightly smaller M1.6/Sf flare occurred at 17/2335 UTC, with several lesser C-class flares originating from this region today as well. The magnetic delta spot configuration remains evident in the intermediate cluster of spots. Region 229 (N19E12) did not produce optically correlated flare activity during the period although the areal spot coverage has increased and the magnetic gamma characteristics remain intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 226 and 229 have the potential of producing M-class event activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels once the onset of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream begins, which is expected to occur on day one of the forecast period. Day two should see predominantly unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods should occur on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 197
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  195/195/195
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  020/035-018/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%25%
Minor storm35%25%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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