Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 226 (S18W01)
produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC. This region has continued
to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic
delta configuration in its intermediate spots. Shortly following
the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint
optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray
enhancement at 16/2336 UTC. Other flare activity included several
C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225
(N17E11). New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. A slight chance for an
isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region
226.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period
at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast
period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals
possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected
onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 213 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 205/205/195 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 015/015-020/035-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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