Viewing archive of Monday, 16 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 225 (N17E23) produced an M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps at 16/1115 UTC. No CME was evident in LASCO imagery following this event. Other activity included numerous C-class flares from several regions, notably from 226 (S28E12), 227 (N07W07), and 229 (N18E37). All of today's flare producing regions have shown some growth in size and/or magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. The regions discussed in section 1A above all appear to be possible sources for isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated unsettled periods. A gradual reduction in high speed stream effects was apparent in data from the ACE satellite over the course of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to develop on day two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated active and possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M45%45%45%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 203
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-015/015-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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