Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Numerous C-class events
occurred, with Region 226 (S28E25) being the most frequent source of
flare activity. However, Region 227 (N06E08) appeared in available
H-alpha and SOHO-EIT imagery to have been the source of the largest
event of the period, associated with an impulsive C5.9 x-ray
enhancement at 15/1804 UTC. Several other regions produced C-class
optical flares, including the closely spaced group of Regions
223/5/9 (collectively located near N20E45). Of these, Region 229
(N18E51) appears to be the largest and most complex. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare
activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Weak coronal hole high
speed stream effects persisted through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. Isolated
active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three, in
response to expected recurrent coronal hole effects
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 203 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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