Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. The rapidly emerging Region
226 (S28E39) produced frequent C-class flare events throughout the
period, the largest being a C3/1f at 14/0843 UTC. Other regions
which produced C-class activity included 220 (S13W18), 223 (N23E46),
224 (S18E49) and 225 (N17E51). Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 228 (S14E65) and 229 (N15E63). The latter region is located
near Region 225, but magnetic field analysis suggests two distinct
bipolar spot groups in close proximity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data from
the ACE satellite suggested the development of high speed stream
effects over the course of the period, from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
are possible through the first day of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 186 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 012/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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